A “Ceasefire” That’s Designed to Fail
February 7, 2025—We all knew things would ramp up for the worse in the second Trump administration in the U.S., but just how bad it would be, was left to be seen. The same could be said about Israel’s genocide in Gaza. For instance, how would Trump, who had a (dubious) antiwar reputation, deal with Israel? Was Trump responsible for Netanyahu’s acceptance of the ceasefire deal?
A false hope, unfortunately
The very fact that the ceasefire was even honored by both parties (for 11 days as of this date) gave people everywhere a sense of hope. Gazans came back to the north in the thousands, and some even found their homes. Most have found only rubble, and everything else needed for life has been destroyed: access to food, clean water, schools, hospitals, was also destroyed. Yet these amazing fine people were happy to be free in their country, and determined to stick it out—how I don’t know.
The problem here is that the ceasefire deal was designed to fail as soon as Biden’s administration came to an end. The text was similar to the Biden administration’s earlier three-phase draft, in which the first phase was supposed to consist of negotiations which would ensure that a ceasefire gave Israel a chance to declare negotiations a failure and restart its war as soon as Biden was out of office. The next two phases were tacked on to make it look good for the U.S. “peace effort.” All parties knew that Israel was not going to give up on its attempt to wipe Hamas off the face of the earth and drive all the Palestinians off their historic land.
Who is to govern?
Most importantly, the first phase of the ceasefire was to include a decision about who was to govern Gaza. Whoever would think that Israel and Hamas would even sit down with each other (even on a screen) for more than two seconds deserves the all-time optimist doctorate. Negotiations up to now have been handled with couriers going back and forth so the parties do not even look at each other, and even these break down.
Furthermore, Hamas may agree with a coalition government that leaves it in charge, which Israel will never accept, and Israel would insist on a government that it can control, and which Hamas is nowhere to be found outside of a graveyard. At this point I want to remind the reader of something others never mention anymore, and that is Hamas is NOT a dictatorship. It was democratically elected in the Gaza Strip in 2016. After that, military interruptions got in the way.
Trump and Netanyahu ramp up genocide
The certainty that Israel will kill the ceasefire and continue the genocide is locked in by Israel’s leadership under Netanyahu and his fascist hangers-on. As the leftist Israeli publication Haaretz puts it, “Netanyahu is determined to blow up the deal.” The reason for this is clear. His far-right supporters are blasting it on the air waves and promising to bring down the government if their wish isn’t met. And for the prime minister himself, he needs to have the war to keep him in office, since he will be heading to jail if he steps down due to his earlier corruption convictions.
As if that wasn’t enough, Netanyahu has the problem of the hostages that the Hamas militants captured in the October 7th attack on Israel in 2023. He wants to save his butt, not hostages, and of course he knows it will take a full stop of the war to free them all, which he also doesn’t want. (As it stands, the first phase of the ceasefire peace deal demands Hamas must release just 33 of them, which, at this writing they are doing.)
And Trumps press conference? “Piece of Cake…Just do it!” says he.
Then there is the new President in Washington, who treats the world as if he is a selfish child tossing toys around in a sandbox. It seemed to me that Trump may have stunned even Netanyahu at their joint press conference on February 4th with his through-the-looking glass plan to empty Palestine of its people and turn Gaza from a wasteland into a “Riviera” paradise! He would do this after the war was over, and by having the U.S. take over the country and “own” it—and do all this without using any U.S. troops.
It was kind of surprising to hear him repeat over and over that Gaza was a totally destroyed and an unlivable wasteland, after he had mentioned at the beginning that he had lifted Biden’s ban on sending 2000-pound bunker-buster bombs, which Israel has been using for months to create that very non-livability! You could almost see Netanyahu smirking as Trump went on about the destruction that Israel was responsible for.
Mideast in a rage
A week or so earlier, Trump mentioned that the Palestinians being forced out should be shipped off to Egypt and Jordan, both of whom immediately slammed the door on that idea. So, he had to mention that fact in the press conference. And in a brief mumble he said they would likely change their minds, which any idiot would know was not going to happen. Trump’s office is looking for other countries, some in other continents, to which to ship “these animals.” (Trump’s words, caught off guard in a different circumstance.)
What did Netanyahu have to say at this press conference? Not much. He was too busy praising Trump, sort of like a comrade crawling up on hands and knees to praise “comrade” Stalin. But he did strongly remind all those listening that before any of this could happen Israel would have to win the war. It seemed Trump had kinda-sorta forgotten about that.
A day-after blow-out
The day after this miserable performance was very interesting. Trump made a brief statement that the use of U.S. troops might be needed in certain circumstances. And Netanyahu, when asked by a reporter whether U.S. troops would be used, said emphatically they would not.
The reaction to this “conference” around the world was explosive. In the Mideast, Saudi Arabia immediately tightened up its refusal to recognize Israel without recognition of Palestine as a nation. Getting the Saudis onboard for that had been another of Trump’s aims. Iran, Turkey, China, France, Russia and the United Kingdom all made negative statements. Germany’s reaction was typical: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stressed that the Gaza Strip “belongs to the Palestinians.”
Arabs in the U.S., many who had voted for Trump, were disappointed and angry. The Arab Americans for Trump changed its name the next day to Arab Americans for Peace. The group had voted for Trump in 2024, but now they are joining many other voters on both sides who voted third party or for Trump because of their disgust with Biden over the genocide in Gaza. The masses of people in the Mideast, and the U.S. peace movement, will certainly be organizing protests as well.